Saturday, 13 August 2011

Bets 13/08/11

Yesterdays results weren't too bad and because of Garud drifting out to 3/1 and winning there was a slight profit. Red Gulch put in another consistant run to finish second. My small ew selection Cockney Fire ran a good race to finish 5th @20/1 for Cathy Gannon and might be worth another chance if dropped in class slightly.

Todays card at Newbury looks very tough to call and could be a long day for some at the track with nine races on the card. I would expect Census to run well in the 2.30 at around 5/1, but that one is too tight to call.

Newbury 3.40-In the Hungerford stakes over 7F Excelebration looks a worthy favourite after finishing third behind Frankel and previously winning the German 2000 Guineas in style, but the 9/4 currently on offer is plenty short. Musir stands out to me as the class act in the field, having won the UAE derby and been placed in a Hong Kong Group 1, although over 1m. If this drop back in trip isn't a problem 6/1 could be value for a consistant performer in a tough race.

Lingfield 7.10- A near impossible race to call so would only have a small bet in this, but if you can forgive his last two runs Pie Poudre was in good form prior to that and has won wearing the visor before. I just think at anything from 14/1 and bigger if you can get it he could be worth a small bet.

Ripon 3.30-In a 6F race that most could win at some point and with Hugh Taylor putting up Tajneed which has taken some of the value out of it there might be better value in some of the others. Despite a high draw Waffle at 11/1 is one I like. If you excuse his last run there's some pretty solid form. He will need to get a good position early, but should finish well. The one I like with a better draw is Fathsta at 12/1, again if you forgive his run LTO he has been quite consitant putting in good performances in tough races and could go well here.

Doncaster 4.20-Ginger Ted at 6/1 gets a tentative vote in another big field handicap today(20 runners). He's one I haven't been able to be on the right side of yet, but hopefully if he gets out well and a clear run as he will finish strongly. He has run well in big fields before so that's not a concern.

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